The 2023 Dodge Challenger 3.6 offers a discount of more than 400,000 cars.

  Challenger comes standard with complete configuration: skylight rainy day braking support, ESC electronic stability control system, steep slope starting auxiliary system, ROM electronic anti-roll device, hydraulic braking power,

  ABS, active headrest, rear 60/40 folding seat, child lock reservation, luxurious front and rear foot pads, trunk carpet kit, armrest box, cup holder lighting 2.62 rear axle ratio, rear window defogging,

  Internal anti-glare rearview mirror, electric adjustable rearview mirror can be folded, remote control key, keyless entry and one-button start, (car hotline: Liu Jingli 15102223918 with WeChat)

  Dual-zone air conditioner, 12V power outlet, 6-way electric adjustment by driver. The biggest feeling is that the car is quite cost-effective.

  The biggest feeling is that the car is quite cost-effective. Seat, driver 4-way adjustable lumbar support, one-button lowering of electric window, external temperature display, LED taillights,

  More luxury car information in Tianjin and Hong Kong, master first-hand real-time resources, such as glove box lights, halogen headlights, automatic headlights, daytime running lights, door handle lighting, front net logo, door handle with the same color on the body, and rear tail with the same color on the body.

  Double chrome-plated tail throat, speed control, 18.5 gallon fuel tank, 6 speakers, antenna, multifunctional leather steering wheel, rear stabilizer bar, no spare tire, 235/55R18 tires, 7-inch screen of Uconnect4 system, (car hotline: Liu Jingli 15102223918 with WeChat).

  18-inch aluminum wheel, reflection, tire pressure monitoring, sports mode, dog-tooth cloth sports seat, brake assist, rear armrest box with cup holder, leather wrapped gear handle, 8-speed automatic gear,

  3.6L V624VVT engine, front reading light, USB interface, radio, Bluetooth, humidity sensor.

  This muscle car, which is claim to be that strongest in America, has a diabolical face and stare at everyone who looks at him. This front face is the most aggressive and flat air intake grille I have ever seen.

  In addition, the configuration of the front spoiler gives people a strong sense of touching the ground. The embedded round headlights look extremely fierce, (car hotline: Liu Jingli 15102223918 with WeChat) shows the heroic style of the American muscle car.

  The parallel import of challenger’s muscle car newspaper GT only adds AWD to the challenger’s transmission system, and challenger GT uses special wheels and GT logo on the front fender.

  Besides, this is an ordinary challenger. More specifically, the wheels are 19-inch aluminum wheels, which are wrapped with 235/55/R19 four-season tires and Michelin winter tires. The biggest feeling is that the car is quite cost-effective.

  Parallel imports of Dodge Challenger muscle cars have been in the craze. One after another, new models are released, as one of the favorite cars in the fashion world, and the American car culture is concentrated. No matter which era you stand in, they are all muscle cars that are infectious and worthy of collection. (Car hotline: Liu Jingli 15102223918 with WeChat) The new challenger GT is officially unveiled, and the front face looks very familiar. The body size is 5017*1923*1415mm, and the wheelbase is 2950mm.

  Triple guarantee of car purchase

  The first guarantee: the original regular commodity car ensures that the brand-new car is repaired without accident.

  The second guarantee: to ensure the quality, every car of the manufacturer has been professionally tested before leaving the factory.

  The third guarantee: the formalities on the day of car purchase are taken with the car.

  (Customs clearance, commodity inspection, conformity certificate, invoice, electronic information QR code)

  Atangge (Tianjin) International Trading Co., Ltd.

  Liu Jingli 15102223918

  A207 Senyang International Automobile City, Binhai New Area, Tianjin

  Disclaimer: The above car purchase preferential information is provided by the comprehensive dealers of this website, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market factors, which is only for car purchase reference; The distributor is responsible for its authenticity, accuracy and legality, and this website does not provide any guarantee or assume any legal responsibility.

Since the beginning of this year, more than 30 cities have introduced the property market optimization policy, and the interest rate of the first home loan has dropped to a minimum of 3.7%

  After reaffirming the status of "real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy" at the central level and introducing a number of policy tools to support the smooth operation of the real estate market, in 2023, the local government continued the easing policy of the property market and continued to introduce optimization policies to promote the healthy development of the property market.

  According to The Paper’s incomplete statistics, this year, Including Fujian Xiamen, Sichuan Ziyang, Shandong Jining, Hubei Yichang, Zhejiang Wenzhou, Jiangxi Nanchang Honggutan District, Anhui Huaibei, Henan Jiyuan, Heilongjiang Harbin, Hunan Changsha, Shandong Jinan, Jiangxi Nanchang Anyi, Inner Mongolia Ulanhot, Guangxi Guiping, Hubei Wuhan, Jiangsu Yancheng, Zhejiang Shaoxing, Liaoning Dandong, Anhui Bozhou, Guangdong Dongguan, Jiangsu Xuzhou, Liaoning Dalian, Jiangsu Lianyungang and Guangxi Fangchenggang.

  From the perspective of policy content, it includes lifting the purchase restriction, raising the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans, adjusting the minimum down payment ratio of provident fund loans, extending consumer subsidies, increasing the amount of provident fund loans for families with many children, clearly confirming that houses are not recognized for loans, and encouraging group purchases to buy houses.

  Raise the amount of provident fund loans in many places

  Taking Jining, Shandong Province as an example, the Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Jining City, Shandong Province issued a notice on adjusting some policies of individual housing loans of housing provident fund on January 29, clarifying that from February 1, 2023, the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans will be increased, the standards for determining the number of housing units will be adjusted, and the minimum down payment ratio of housing provident fund loans will be adjusted. The maximum amount of double-paid employee family provident fund loans will be raised to 800,000 yuan; The maximum amount of a single employee family provident fund loan will be raised to 500,000 yuan. For families with many children, the maximum amount of provident fund loans will be raised to 800,000 yuan for the first set of self-occupied housing, and 500,000 yuan for the second set of self-occupied housing; For families with many children raising minor children, if they buy the first and second sets of self-occupied housing, the maximum amount of provident fund loans will be raised to 800 thousand yuan.

  At the same time, the minimum down payment ratio of the first home provident fund loan is adjusted to 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio of the second home provident fund loan is adjusted to 30%.

  Hubei Yichang Housing Provident Fund Center issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Policies for the Use of Provident Funds in the City". Since January 29th, families with two or more children in Yichang household registration can apply for provident fund loans at 1.4 times the current maximum amount (600,000 yuan), that is, 840,000 yuan.

  Wuhan continued to implement the policy of no purchase outside the Second Ring Road. On January 13, the staff of Wuhan Real Estate Trading Center said that at present, no matter whether it is a new house or a second-hand house outside the Second Ring Road, it is not limited to purchase, just apply for the qualification to buy a house. Prior to this, the relevant staff of Wuhan Housing Security and Housing Administration responded to the news that Wuhan adjusted the purchase restriction policy outside the Second Ring Road on December 9, 2022, saying that there were new policies only for the housing fair.

  The implementation period of housing subsidy is extended.

  At the same time, many places continue to implement housing subsidies and preferential policies.

  Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province issued a document saying that in order to better meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers, individuals will continue to purchase new ordinary commodity housing and stock housing in urban areas (including Lucheng District, Longwan District, ouhai district, Dongtou District, Haijing District and Economic Development Zone) for the first time (subject to the time when the contract for the sale of commercial housing and stock housing in Zhejiang Province is signed online), and after obtaining the real estate certificate of housing, they will be given a consumption subsidy of 0.6% of the purchase price, and the implementation time will be 2020.

  The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province issued a notice on January 12, which will use the peak period of returning home during the Spring Festival to launch a series of measures to promote housing consumption. Among them, including the urban "housing eight articles" housing subsidies extended for 2 months, and encourage local sub-sectors to carry out online and offline home buyers to buy special exhibitions. At the same time, organize a group purchase online signing and accreditation activity. All localities organized group buyers to focus on the signing activities of house selection, and actively carried out the activity of "handing over the house to apply for a certificate" at the delivery site to promote the service of people’s livelihood. Organize a bank-enterprise docking activity.

  On January 20th, official website, the People’s Government of Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, showed that in order to further promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Harbin, the Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau took the lead in studying and drafting the Opinions on Measures to Further Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Harbin (draft for comments), which has Harbin household registration (including 9 districts and 9 counties (cities)) and conforms to the birth policy. After October 29th, 2021, families who have given birth to the second and third children will buy the first or second set of newly-built commercial housing in the 9 th district of the main city, and they will be given a one-time housing subsidy of 15,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan respectively by filing the Commercial Housing Sales Contract, my identity certificate, bills for payment of house purchase, immovable property certificate, household registration book and birth medical certificate.

  The interest rate of the first home loan will be reduced to 3.7%.

  In addition to adjusting the purchase policy, the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate has been lowered many times this year. According to the incomplete statistics of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, after the Spring Festival, cities including Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Zhuhai, Changchun and Shenyang successively lowered the lower limit of the interest rate of the first home loan, and a new wave of lowering the mortgage interest rate is being staged. Up to now, 30 cities have lowered the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, of which the lowest is 3.7%.

  According to the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first set of housing loan interest rate policy announced by the central bank, cities where the sales price of new commercial housing has decreased for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year, the lower limit of the local first set of housing loan interest rate policy can be maintained, lowered or cancelled in stages.

  According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, there are 35 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities that meet the downward adjustment requirements. According to the data of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, 20 of them have lowered or cancelled the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate. It is expected that the unadjusted cities will also follow up with the downward adjustment of the mortgage interest rate. There are many second-tier cities such as Harbin, Wenzhou and Nanning. In the first quarter, the first home loan interest rate of more cities will fall below 4%.

  On January 17th this year, the National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held in Beijing. The conference emphasized that 2023 is the first year to comprehensively implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress, and we should focus on twelve aspects. These include promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market with increasing confidence, preventing risks and promoting transformation as the main line. Vigorously support the demand for rigid and improved housing, unswervingly adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, because of the city’s policy and precise policy. We will promote the work of guaranteeing the people’s livelihood and stability, resolve the risk of capital chain breakage of enterprises, strive to improve quality, build a good house, rectify the order of the real estate market, and let the people buy houses and rent houses with confidence.

  Chen Wenjing, director of market research in the Index Division of the Central Finger Research Institute, pointed out that in 2023, the policies on both sides of supply and demand are expected to be further improved, with the demand side emphasizing "precise policy" and the enterprise side focusing on preventing and resolving risks. On the one hand, the demand side emphasizes unswervingly adhering to the positioning of "housing and not speculating", on the other hand, it emphasizes "precise policy" to enhance the precision and coordination of policies, accurately support the demand for rigid and improved housing with greater efforts, and enhance market confidence.

Put on a brand-new 1.5T engine! The new Volkswagen Golf debuted on November 7th!

[Automotive Technology] What is the hottest car in China now? What car is the hardest to mention? I’m afraid it must be-it must be. Since it went on the market in October last year, it has appeared on this model for a long time, and with the longer time for the husband to go on the market, although the current situation of the car and the situation of raising the car at a higher price have been partially alleviated (now the 1.4T model can’t escape the fate of raising the price or adding decoration), but it is followed by the "reduction" of golf.

In fact, when I first heard about the "reduced allocation" of golf models, I thought that the configuration of the models it sells now has changed compared with a group of earlier cars. But after understanding, it turned out that the focus of debate was on the changes in the materials and suppliers of some parts. Although many netizens in the forum have posted posts about discussing the "allocation reduction" of golf, most of them have no pictures. Since everyone is concerned about when this allocation has changed, let’s take a look at how golf is "allocated reduction" in this article today!


There are a lot of posts about golf reduction in car home Forum. You can click on the picture below to enter the golf talk for discussion and speech.

123

> > Click to enter FAW-Volkswagen Golf Forum for discussion < <


Here are a few representative posts.

Golf 6 mentioned in December 2009 has been found to be a simple match. . Anger (with pictures)
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-871-5432154-1.html

It’ s really a pot of water! GOLF A6 began to reduce allocation again.
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-871-6314650-1.html

Turning to the classic allocation table again, we can see the future of high 6.
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-871-6337204-1.html


After sorting out the changes of golf-related configuration materials and suppliers mentioned by netizens, we found that everyone’s focus is mainly on:Material, supplier of windshield, supplier of sunroof assembly (glass and slide rail), origin of shock absorption, whether the bottom guard is cancelled, whether the noise-proof cotton of engine hood is cancelled, and the origin of hydraulic tappet and the style of hub are changed.Wait.

In order to verify the relevant allocation reduction, we investigated seven models in different production years, and found that the materials and suppliers of related parts of the same model with different production dates have changed.However, on some parts, we can’t find the distribution shortage mentioned by netizens. Of course, this may be related to the scope of our investigation. Therefore, this investigation is limited to explaining whether there is "distribution shortage" for models with different production time.. Then let’s begin to show our findings.

First of all, let’s talk about the production date and model of the models investigated this time.

The production date and model of the vehicle type investigated this time. Date of production displacement car make and model September 24, 2009 1.4T Automatic comfort edition January 14th, 2010 1.4T Manual comfort version (plus leather) January 18th, 2010 1.4T Automatic comfort edition March 6, 2010 1.4T Automatic comfort edition March 27th, 2010 1.6L Manual fashion edition April 6, 2010 1.6L Automatic deluxe edition April 2, 2010 1.4T Automatic deluxe edition


The latest situation of changing the subframe material from aluminum alloy to steel;

After the publication of the article, FAW-Volkswagen officially contacted us, saying that not all golf models use steel sub-frames, and some models still continue to use aluminum alloy sub-frames. However, according to the results of our investigation, no models with aluminum alloy sub-frames have been found in the market, which is of course related to the limited scope of our investigation. If, as officially claimed by FAW-Volkswagen, there are still vehicles using aluminum alloy sub-frames, we will also find relevant vehicles for verification. Please pay attention.


Former windshield supplier: The seven cars in this survey use AGC (Asahi Glass) brand.

The seven models we investigated in this survey all used the glass produced in China by Japan’s AGC (Asahi Glass) company. As for the situation that the windshield was replaced by Fuyao brand, we did not find it in this survey, but it does not rule out that the windshield brand will change in the future.

Suspension damping spring: it is impossible to confirm whether it is made in China or imported at present.

In the forum, many netizens are questioning that the suspension damping spring of golf has been reduced from the previous "four-point" spring in Germany to the domestic "no-point" spring. The so-called "point" refers to the small points with different colors appearing on the spring. However, in our opinion, it is not sufficient to judge whether the springs are made in China or imported from the point of point, point or number. If we judge, we can only disassemble the springs to confirm them, so we can’t judge whether the springs of these seven cars are different in this survey.

The style of the rear door and wheel hub has changed: it is not considered as a reduction.

In addition, netizens discussed the situation that some models produced in 2009, except for the luxury version, had speakers at the rear door but no wiring, while those recently put into production, except for the luxury version, had no speakers and no wiring. In my opinion, I don’t think this is a reduction. After all, the manufacturer has already stated the number of speakers when launching the configuration. Therefore, if the previous models have speakers but no connecting lines, I think the owners who bought these cars are lucky, and they can enjoy the sound feeling brought by two more speakers when they are connected to the line. It’s a pity to buy a car with no horn and no connection at the back door. If you want to enjoy better sound quality, you can modify it later, and the effect will be better than that of the original factory.

Car home FAW-Volkswagen Golf 2010 1.6 automatic comfort type

"In terms of configuration, the comfort model should have no horn at the back door."

Oh, by the way, I don’t think this is a reduction in the wheel hub style mentioned by netizens. After all, the size and material of the hub have not changed, but the style has changed. The change of style may make different consumers feel that the hub is somewhat unsightly, but whether it is beautiful or not is a matter of different opinions. I think most consumers will not have big opinions as long as it is not the change of hub size and material.

Car home FAW-Volkswagen Golf 2010 1.4T automatic luxury model

"The wheel hub style of the 『1.4T vehicle has changed, with the left being the 2009 model style/the right being the current model style."

After talking about the styles of windshield, damping spring, rear door horn and wheel hub, many netizens are still talking about the situation that the materials and suppliers of subframe, engine cover sound insulation cotton and engine bottom guard have changed in different batches of vehicles, so we will answer them one by one according to the production time of the golf car under investigation.

Nanjing Forestry University dismissed 49 teachers and students in one and a half years: University is not a safe.

  Source: official website of Nanlinda University

  Xinhua News Agency reporter Qin Ying compiled

  Autumn is the harvest season. This autumn, Wang Jun, who wasted his spring and summer, received a notice from Nanjing Forestry University that he had to quit school because he had not completed his required studies.

  As early as a year ago, Nanjing Forestry University gave advice to Wang Jun, a 2012 student, on how to drop out of school. His mother took him to the school to beg, hoping to give her children another chance to stay on campus. In view of his health reasons, the school agreed to demote Wang Jun for one year. However, a year later, he was almost obsessed with playing games, but he still didn’t get enough credits.

  This time, Wang Jun’s mother didn’t come to school again. "I can imagine how disappointed this mother should be." The tone of Professor Gao Handong, deputy director of the Academic Affairs Office of Nanjing Forestry University, is also somewhat regrettable.

  In 2014, Nanjing Forestry University issued the Measures for Undergraduate Students’ Academic Warning and Assistance (Trial), which gave students yellow, orange and red academic warnings according to the seriousness of their unfinished studies, and those who were given red warnings were dismissed from school. There were 18 red warnings in the second half of 2014, 13 in the first half of 2015 and 18 in the second half of 2015. In a year and a half, Nanlin University persuaded 49 students to leave.

  Being expelled from school, as far as students are concerned, means that college dreams are broken; As far as his family is concerned, it means that the parents who want their children to become dragons and daughters to become phoenixes are cold; As far as the school is concerned, it means that it has to make a choice to eliminate "unqualified products" and defend the teaching quality and the reputation of the school.

  The reporter visited some universities in Nanjing and found that this move by Nanjing Forestry University is not an isolated case. Say no to the cultivation of talents in colleges and universities, walk into such colleges and universities, approach the students who have been dropped out of school, approach their teachers and peers, and lift the veil in the corner of the campus where "youth and confusion are squeezed".

  A student who has been dismissed.

  "The university has just started, but I didn’t expect it to end."

  Wang Jun, a 2012 student of Nanjing Forestry University, was demoted in November 2014 because of the orange academic warning, and was dismissed from school in June 2015 because she reached the red warning. In the fall of 2015, I applied for a demotion trial, but I failed to complete enough credits in the first semester and was terminated. After extending the trial again in the spring of 2016, I only got 7.5 credits, and finally I was terminated and dropped out of school.

  In the memory of a teacher in Wang Jun, he seldom attended self-study classes and was almost obsessed with playing games. Although he failed many courses, he seemed to have nothing to do with himself. He didn’t take more than 40 credits in three years. "What does it mean to have more than 40 credits? Nearly 20 courses failed! " The teacher looked helpless and puzzled.

  Xin Li, a 2014 student of Nanlin University, was given a red warning in May 2015 because his credits did not exceed 4 points in one semester, and was subsequently dismissed from school. After applying for demotion for one year, I resumed my student status and returned to my original class in September 2016.

  This gentle-looking, slow-talking boy, together with several other students, broke the record of Nanlin’s big red warning: after just one semester in college, he was dismissed from school. In the first semester of college, he got only 4 credits and failed 4 courses.

  Xin Li comes from a big city in the west. Like many peers, from primary school to high school, she is surrounded by school assignments and various off-campus tutoring, and has experienced countless nights of studying hard. "At that time, the teacher always said, now eat more bitter, and you will go to heaven if you are admitted to college!" Xin Li said. Looking forward to it, looking forward to it, and finally waiting for the day when I am admitted to the university, it is time to have a good time. "liberated!" Xin Li described his mentality when he first entered Nanlin University. Finally, he didn’t have to work as hard as senior three, so he could play as he wanted.

  Soaking in Internet cafes and playing games, Xin Li released his game addiction that had been suppressed for three years in high school. In the first semester of college, the internet cafe next to the school was his frequent place. He seldom goes to study at night, because there are no teachers or parents around to urge him to study. In this way, in a state of idleness, the first semester of Xin Li’s university passed easily. He didn’t pay attention to the stipulation in the materials distributed by the school when he entered the school: if he got no more than 4 points in a semester, he would be given a red warning and dropped out.

  "It’s like a blow to the head, and I’m scared &hellip; &hellip;” Even today, talking about hearing the news of being dropped out of school, Xin Li still has sweat on his head. "The university just started, but I didn’t expect it to end!"

  Wen Chao, a 2014 student of Nanlin University, failed in seven courses in his freshman year and five courses in his sophomore year. In September 2016, he was given an orange warning and dropped one grade to resume his studies.

  Talking with Wen Chao, it was an autumn afternoon, with drizzle hitting the window and misty rain on campus. Wen Chao looked out of the window and said, "It’s raining outside like this, so many feelings will come out of my heart and I want to write it."

  Wen Chao, who is particularly fond of writing, has a literary talent and has written more than 500,000 words of literary works. The summer after the college entrance examination, he wrote more than 100,000 words of online novels.

  But Wen Chao studied science and engineering. Often at two or three o’clock in the middle of the night, he gets up and holds the computer or pen and paper to write. "About 70% or 80% of the energy is spent on writing, and there is very little time for professional study." Wen Chao said that because he had a good foundation in science in high school, he didn’t take professional courses seriously. He listened in class and almost never reviewed after class. "The power is biased!" Looking back on his two years in college, Wen Chao was a little annoyed.

  Ma Ning, a 2013 student of Nanlin University, has been repeatedly warned by yellow studies.

  When it comes to Ma Ning, Teacher Li Jing, the counselor of the School of Science, is somewhat in distress situation: he is too obsessed with playing games, playing with his mobile phone and computer, sometimes playing with his mobile phone and computer together, looking at what is in his hand and thinking about what is on the table, and often playing late into the night. "Then, it is truancy, he can’t get up in the morning! I tried to wake him up by calling his cell phone every morning, but he turned it on mute. I simply told his dormitory classmates to wake him up in the morning, and if they don’t get up, they can lift his quilt. "

  As a counselor, Li Jing often urges Ma Ning, whether in the classroom, on the road or in the dormitory, as long as he meets him, he reminds him, "Don’t play games!" Excavate can’t remember how many times I talked with him. Ma Ning sometimes even patted the table and swore "never to play again", but after two days, he took care of it again.

  Parents of dismissed students

  "There is only one plea: let the children stay."

  In the face of children being dismissed by universities, parents’ mood may be the most complicated of all.

  When Wang Jun dropped out of school in 2015, Wang Jun’s parents came to Nanlin University. My mother burst into tears in front of the person in charge of the academic affairs office: what should I do if I drop out of school after studying for so many years? The child’s life is ruined!

  Gao Beilei, deputy director of the Academic Affairs Office of Nanjing University of Science and Technology, has also encountered such a situation: "A mother who has been persuaded to withdraw her students has been crying behind me. No matter how you explain it, she has only one plea: let her children stay. However, the school has its own system, and we can only harden our hearts and say, please don’t affect our work. "

  Xin Li and Wen Chao’s parents, both in western provinces, rushed to school as soon as they heard that their children had been dropped out of school and given an orange warning. Xin Li said that at the beginning, he didn’t know how to tell his father about dropping out of school. After making a phone call, his father didn’t blame much. He rushed to Nanjing on a starry night to discuss with his teacher how to cherish the opportunity of trial reading. "My father’s actions gave me confidence. I felt love and trust from him."

  There are also parents of students, especially parents of some wealthy families, who are calm or even indifferent to their children being persuaded to leave. Gao Handong, deputy director of the Academic Affairs Office of Nanlin University, said that when a parent from Taizhou, Jiangsu Province came to the school to discuss how to help students, he listened to the teacher and kept answering the phone to do business. "The business is more important than children’s studies. At first, I received a phone call from the school, but later I simply didn’t come to the school. I let my children drift and didn’t mind the interruption of their studies. Perhaps, they just want to gild their children and increase their experience. "

  The teachers in the Academic Affairs Office of colleges and universities are most upset to see the parents of low-income families from rural and urban areas in the central and western regions: children are the hope of the whole family, and the fate of changing the family is pinned on them. Parents worked hard to support their children, and their children went to college at a cold window. They seemed to see the dawn of the family’s future, but they were suddenly dissuaded! Dawn goes out, hope collapses &hellip; &hellip;

  Teacher Li Jing introduced that Ma Ning’s home was in a medium-sized city, and his parents made a living by selling breakfast. They called his parents several times at the earliest, and the couple would arrive at school on time the next day. After several times of ineffective help, his parents didn’t come either. "If he still wastes his time like this, I really don’t know how he will face his parents who work hard to make a living if he is given further warning next!" Excavate a little hate iron not to produce helpless.

  "University is not a legendary paradise for relaxation!" Several students who were warned of dropping out of school and orange studies seemed to have an epiphany when interviewed by reporters. When I was in middle school, because I was closely watched by my parents and teachers, and because of the pressure of my studies, my budding hearts were hidden. It’s time to release them in college. So, play games, do part-time jobs, fall in love, and be busy with clubs &hellip; &hellip; It has almost become the whole life of some students in college.

  "Now many children, from primary school to middle school, grow up with their parents arranging everything for them. When you go to college and really start living independently, it is easy to be at a loss and get lost. " Gao Yudong said.

  Jin Gang, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Nanlin Dali College, said that the school will do its best to help students who are warned by their studies, and will not give up on students from difficult families. "As long as I work hard, even if my learning foundation and ability are poor, the school will do my best to help them catch up."

  The study guidance center established by Southeast University and the undergraduate study guidance center established by Nanjing University of Science and Technology are all aimed at providing academic guidance and assistance to students with academic difficulties, with the aim of preventing students from dropping out of school because of their poor learning ability.

  Persuasion in the eyes of college teachers and students

  "University is not &lsquo; Safe &rsquo; "

  Wang Jun looked indifferent when he was persuaded to leave school. In the view of one of his teachers, "it’s as calm as a hotel passenger leaving for home. Perhaps, he doesn’t have much nostalgia for college life."

  Several students in Wang Jun think that persuasion is too harsh: after studying hard in the cold window for more than ten years, it is not easy to enter a university like Nanlinda University. I will graduate in another year, so why should the school be so strict? Let him go, which not only makes his future, but also warms his family. Wouldn’t it be the best of both worlds?

  Faced with persuasion, it is difficult for students to reach a consensus. Li Bing of Nanlin Dali University is a little resentful about persuading him to quit: Some teachers make the examination questions so difficult. For students with poor foundation, even if they use their "wild power", they may not pass the exam! Zhang Ran of the School of Landscape Architecture expressed his free and easy attitude on the issue of persuasion: you can go abroad to go to college. Besides, you can also go out for employment and start a business as early as possible. Contemporary young people want to shine in life, far more than going to college.

  "Overall, the mood of the students who dropped out of school is relatively stable, because they have been mentally prepared based on their academic achievements, that kind of &lsquo; Cry, make trouble and hang yourself &rsquo; We have not encountered the fierce reaction. " A teacher from the Academic Affairs Office of Nanlin University recalled. Professor Min Yongjun, director of the Academic Affairs Office of the school, recognized Zhang Ran’s view: "Quitting may not be because of your poor ability, but because you are not suitable for studying in this school and this major. Change the platform, maybe you will perform very well. "

  In a post bar of Nanjing Forestry University, the netizen "Tiger Ju Long Pan 123" posted: "It’s been a few years since I graduated, and I feel that the school is getting stricter and stricter. At that time, it seems that there were very few announcements about quitting school, but now every semester, it’s quite strict!"

  Netizen "gerard_ Xiao Zhu" wrote: "I know one of them who was dropped out of school. I really can’t blame the school, because it is really self-motivated. I basically failed all the classes in one semester, failed public courses, and even missed exams. Don’t go to class if you retake, fail or even miss the exam again &hellip; &hellip; If such a student still gets the same diploma as those who study hard, what’s the point of working hard? It’s not fair to those who work hard. If his mind is really not studying, he might as well drop out of school and go to a wider world. "

  In interviews with many universities in Nanjing, several responsible persons admitted that the current higher education does face some objective pressures. First, after the enrollment expansion of colleges and universities, the quality of students has declined compared with the past, and there are constant doubts about the quality of college students’ training from all walks of life. Second, in the face of employment pressure and external temptation, some college students’ impetuous emotions are more obvious. In their eyes, colleges and universities are no longer "ivory towers" dedicated to their studies, but become post stations that leave with diplomas. In this context, it is urgent to "strictly manage the school" and "strictly manage the school".

  Professor Zheng Jiamao, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Southeast University, has been the head of the academic affairs office of the school for a long time. He believes that to dissuade students in colleges and universities is to strictly control the quality of graduates, and two starting points should be identified: quality-oriented and student-oriented. Student-oriented means to let every student get the most suitable training and become a talent who benefits the society; Quality-oriented means that the graduation requirement of a school is a red line, which cannot be lowered under any circumstances, which is related to the lifeline of running a school.

  There are 53 colleges and universities in Nanjing, and basically all have the rules and practices of persuasion. According to Zheng Jiamao, Southeast University has always insisted on strict entry and exit for students, but even if it is strict with students at ordinary times, there will be a drop-out rate of nearly two thousandths every year.

  Among the 16,000 students in Nanjing University of Science and Technology, more than 10 students are persuaded to leave every year. Gao Beilei, deputy director of the Academic Affairs Office of South University of Technology, said that the school also implements an academic warning system, stipulating that if the credits obtained in each semester from freshman to junior are less than 15 points, the yellow warning will be given for the first time, and the red warning will be given twice and the school will be dropped out.

  Gao Beilei said that under the influence of traditional ideas, most parents always want their children to become successful after college education, so they all take the consequences of dropping out of school very seriously and think that interrupting their studies means losing their future. However, the values of some post-90s and post-90s college students are quite different from those of their parents, and they are not so serious about dropping out of school. "Whether to re-enter the college entrance examination or start their own business, parents should communicate with their children on an equal footing, instead of sticking to the concept of never dropping out of school."

  "University is not &lsquo; Safe deposit box &rsquo; Students who lie down and don’t do it must be eliminated. After all, the quality of talent training is the bottom line for colleges and universities to survive, and it is also the expectation of society for colleges and universities. " Gao Yudong said.

  Persuasion institutionalization

  "Pull back the promising ones earlier and ask the hopeless ones out."

  This fall, Wen Chao, who should have been a junior, continued to study in his sophomore year. According to the regulations, students who are warned by orange will be enrolled in the next grade. "Now I don’t engage in literary creation for the time being. I have to spend all my energy on professional study. This semester, the classroom, canteen and dormitory are already at three o’clock." Wen Chao introduced his status in the new semester.

  "Now put 80% of your energy into your study?"

  "Where, it’s 100% now!" Wen Chao smiled shyly.

  Wen Chao said, thanks to the orange warning, he stepped on the brakes of his runaway writing, otherwise he would probably be dropped out of school. Wen Chao said that he has a good foundation in science. In high school, his math and physics scores were often the first in his class. Now, if he concentrates, he should be able to rebuild the failed courses.

  On the school gate of Nanjing Forestry University, there is a school motto with eight characters: "Honest and majestic, trees and people". "As a forestry university, we know &lsquo; Ten years of trees &rsquo; Truth, naturally there will be greater patience to &lsquo; A century-old tree man &rsquo; 。” The words of the person in charge of Nanlin University are meaningful.

  Before 2011, the quality control of graduates in Nanlin University mainly depended on the "clean exam" before graduation, that is, the last make-up exam before graduation for the courses that students failed in school. Pass the exam and graduate smoothly; If you fail the exam, you can continue to take the exam within two years.

  Usually, when the academic pressure is not great, I will fail the course, and it is obviously unrealistic to expect such a "one foot at the door" as the final exam. For the final exam, teachers have two choices: first, many people are doomed to graduate without falling standards; First, demotion to help them get through, but also break through the bottom line of colleges and universities.

  In 2011, before Nanlin University canceled the exam for the Qing Dynasty, several students consciously passed the exam without hope, so they went to the teacher for care, and later they went to the school’s academic affairs office to plead, but they were all turned back.

  "We can’t hand over the quality control to the final exam. It’s too late. It won’t have much effect on saving students with poor academic performance. We should be strict in peacetime." Gao Handong said, "The implementation of academic warning means to bring back the promising ones earlier and invite the hopeless ones out. The key lies in moving forward, process management and precise assistance."

  In 2014, Nanjing Forestry University issued the Measures for Undergraduate Students’ Academic Warning and Assistance (Trial), which gave yellow, orange and red academic warnings to students according to the seriousness of their unfinished studies: the credits per semester did not exceed 12 points and they failed more than two courses, yellow warning; If the credits per semester do not exceed 8 points and fail more than 3 courses, an orange warning will be given; If the credits per semester do not exceed 4 points, or the accumulated credits without courses exceed 40 points, a red warning will be issued.

  In fact, as early as 2005, the Ministry of Education implemented the "Regulations on the Management of Students in Ordinary Colleges and Universities", which expressly required that "those whose academic performance did not meet the requirements of the school or did not complete their studies within the prescribed period of time (including suspension) should drop out of school".

  According to the academic warning method of Nanlin University, students who have been warned by the yellow warning can take various forms of course re-examination if they still fail to pass the make-up exam at the beginning of the second semester: re-examination in shifts and re-examination in groups; At worst, the school will organize summer refresher courses and set up refresher courses in the first few weeks of the summer vacation.

  Persuade, many people see the "strictness" of colleges and universities. Gao Handong said that there are actually many "leniency" behind it, including a series of measures such as system design, dedication to help, and giving the green light to change majors.

  Stiffness and warmth of persuasion system

  "As long as students don’t give up, the school will not give up."

  Xin Li was given a red warning in May 2015, and was dismissed from school. According to the regulations, he can apply for demotion for one year, and he can successfully "resurrect" by completing the required credits within one year, restore his student status and return to his original class to continue his studies. Trial reading is the last green light that the school gives to students with poor academic performance. With the support of parents, Xin Li chose to apply for a trial study.

  The college appointed a special teacher to help Xin Li to make a personal study plan, and was responsible for supervising and helping him. "The counselor, the teacher in charge of teaching in the college and the deputy secretary in charge of students’ work have devoted their ardent concern and selfless help to me this year." Xin Li said that the teachers’ careful guidance inspired him to keep going this year.

  Xin Li joined a club in the school, which, in his words, was "near Zhu Zhechi". He studied by himself and discussed difficult problems with outstanding students in the club, and his enthusiasm for learning had the feeling of high school. During the one-year trial, he was required to complete 15 points, and he earned more than 20 points in both semesters.

  "Is this year particularly hard?"

  "much better than the third year of high school!" Xin Li relaxed a smile.

  Help, not only for Xin Li, a student who tried to study after receiving the red warning. According to the regulations of Nanlin University, students with orange and yellow warnings also have help. Jin Gang introduced that every semester, the college will send warning notices to students and parents in duplicate, and invite parents to the school to discuss the assistance to students. On May 3rd and October 7th every year, it is the parents’ open day of the Science College, and the College makes full use of this opportunity to communicate and cooperate with parents.

  Nanlin University mobilizes the enthusiasm from colleges to teachers to help students: at the beginning of each semester, the Academic Affairs Office will send the failed rate of each major and class in the last semester and the list of students who have been warned by yellow, orange and red to all departments, and the Academic Affairs Office will communicate with the responsible persons in charge of teaching in each department one by one to urge all departments to do a good job of assistance.

  "In a certain class of the Institute of Chemical Technology, the failure rate of a certain course reached 30% last semester. The vice president of teaching was very shocked after seeing it and organized a detailed assistance plan. In the second semester, the failure rate of this class dropped to 10%, and the help effect was obvious. " Gao Handong said, "As long as students don’t give up, the school will not give up!"

  There is a class teacher in Nanlin Dali University. Almost every night, she goes to the self-study classroom to check, and takes some photos outside the classroom to remind me that students are not studying hard. A student who loves to play mobile phones received the message from the class teacher: Today is the fourth time to see you playing mobile phones while studying. If I see it again, I will inform your parents &hellip; &hellip;

  According to Jin Gang, with the dedication and persistence of helping teachers, most of the students who have been warned can consciously correct themselves. "Freshmen hold on tight. Once good habits are developed, they will not fall again in the future."

  In Gao Handong’s view, the reason why some people stay and others leave is not mainly a matter of ability, but a matter of hard work. "Students who can be admitted to colleges and universities like Nanlinda University will have no worse ability. Just as you can’t wake a person who pretends to sleep or doesn’t want to wake up at all. Help can only bring back those who are willing to turn back, but there are always some people who are unwilling to turn back. "

  Changing majors is a door that Nanlin University has opened to students, including academic warnings. Before changing majors, the school mainly gave the green light to outstanding students. Now Nanlinda has opened the door for four types of students to change majors: outstanding students, students with special skills and special potential, students who are not suitable for continuing their studies in their original majors due to health reasons, and students with learning difficulties.

  Wen Chao, who loves literature, was actively arranged by the school to transfer to the Humanities College to study Chinese language and literature, but he refused. He believed in his own strength: "Where you fall, you will get up!"

  Statistics from the Academic Affairs Office of Nanlin University show that the proportion of applications for major change has increased from 10% in 2014 to 30% at present. The proportion of permitted transfer has increased from 10% to 15%. "Except for a few majors who can only choose the best because of too many applicants, most majors can basically meet the needs of students." Yan Yongjun introduced.

  Most of the 49 students who were dismissed by Nanlin University in the last year and a half chose to stay and try. In May 2015, among the 18 students who were given a red warning with Xin Li, 17 applied to stay for trial study. Now that the probation period has expired, there are 8 students who have successfully "revived" like Xin Li, and 9 students have not completed the academic requirements of the probation period.

  After talking with Xin Li, I don’t know when the rain outside the window has stopped. He picked up his schoolbag, nodded goodbye to the reporter, and said that dinner was about to start in the canteen, and he would have a self-study class at night. Throughout the conversation, he rarely mentioned the word "drop out of school", but used the word "something was wrong" instead. He said that when something happened, it was really a hurdle in life and a solid fall. Although it was very painful, it was unforgettable to understand a truth: "University cannot be wasted."

  The figure of Xin Li carrying a schoolbag gradually walked away. On campus, yellow leaves are falling in the autumn wind, and another autumn is about to pass.

  (At the request of the interviewee, all the college students in this article are pseudonyms.)

GDP of 27 provinces in the first quarter: Jiangxi led the growth rate, and the major energy provinces continued to recover.

  As of press time, except for Liaoning, Jilin, Xinjiang and Tibet, other provinces have published economic data for the first quarter of this year. Jiangxi, Hubei, Fujian and Guizhou rank among the top four in the national economic growth rate with 6.9%, 6.7%, 6.7% and 6.6% respectively.

  On the whole, the economic operation of most provinces achieved a smooth start in the first quarter, but since March, the impact of frequent outbreaks on the economy has increased, which has become the current challenge.

  The epidemic situation has obvious impact.

  On April 25th, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Gansu released the first quarter economic data. So far, 27 provinces in China have released the first quarter economic data. Among the 27 provinces, only 5 provinces are lower than the national average economic growth level (4.8%), namely Henan, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shanghai and Tianjin, which increased by 4.7%, 4.6%, 3.3%, 3.1% and 0.1% respectively.

  The frequent occurrence of epidemic situation is an important factor affecting the economic situation in the first quarter. Yi Xiaoguang, president of Chongqing Comprehensive Economic Research Institute, told CBN that the forecast of the economic situation at the beginning of this year emphasized triple pressures, and then there were changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine and repeated epidemics, all of which had a certain impact on the economy.

  The above-mentioned provinces whose economic growth rate in the first quarter was lower than the national growth level all suffered the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter. Even if some areas successfully controlled the epidemic in a short time, their data also showed the obvious impact of the epidemic on the economy.

  Zeng Junlin, chief economist of Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said at the economic data conference in the first quarter of Sichuan Province that the epidemic with many spots, wide areas and frequent occurrences had the greatest impact on the service industry, which directly led to the service industry’s recovery being less than expected.

  Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province, suffered two rounds of epidemic shocks in the first quarter, which is reflected in the data: Sichuan’s GDP increased by 5.3% in the first quarter, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 591.7 billion yuan, up by 5.1% year-on-year; In the first quarter, Chengdu’s GDP increased by 5.0%, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 228.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%.

  Zeng Junlin said that the growth rate of Sichuan’s service industry in the first quarter was 4.8%, which was lower than the GDP growth rate, significantly lower than the average level of the previous two years by 2.1 percentage points, and far lower than the level before the epidemic in 2019 by 3.2 percentage points. The volume of service industry is increasing, accounting for more than half of GDP. Therefore, the impact of service industry on the whole economy is also very obvious.

  Not only that, but the epidemic also affected areas dominated by tourism consumption.

  In 2021, Hainan ranked second in the country with a GDP growth rate of 11.2%, second only to Hubei (12.9%), with an average two-year growth rate of 7.3% compared with 2019, ranking first in the country. Under the national strategic opportunity, Hainan began to rise. However, although Hainan’s economy started smoothly in the first quarter of this year, the ranking of growth rate declined, ranking fifth in the country with a growth rate of 6%.

  Wang Yu, deputy director of the Hainan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that the sudden epidemic did have a certain impact on the economic operation of Hainan Province, mainly affecting the consumer market in March.

  In the first quarter, Hainan’s investment in fixed assets increased by 16.3%, faster than the average growth rate of 7.5 percentage points in the same period of last year; The industrial added value increased by 7.6%, faster than the average growth rate of 4.7 percentage points in the same period of last year. From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan increased by 16.7% year-on-year, but in March, due to the epidemic affecting the tourism and consumer markets, the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods dropped to 4.8%.

  Lin Jingyun, director of the Trade and Economic Department of Hainan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that in March, Hainan was affected by the local epidemic, the number of tourists decreased significantly, residents’ travel and consumption were limited, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 17.8% year-on-year; The tax exemption for outlying islands and the tourism consumption market were hit to a certain extent, and the retail sales of goods in March decreased by 21.6% year-on-year.

  However, the sustained recovery of major energy provinces since last year is offsetting the impact of the epidemic.

  The GDP of Shanxi, a major coal province, increased by 6.5% in the first quarter, ranking first in the country. Among them, Shanxi’s industrial production is growing well. In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 11.0%, exceeding the national level by 4.5 percentage points. From the perspective of coal and non-coal, the coal industry increased by 11.4% and the non-coal industry increased by 10.6%.

  Although Xi ‘an was affected by the epidemic, Shaanxi’s GDP increased by 5.1% in the first quarter. In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shaanxi Province increased by 9.1% year-on-year. Among the three categories, mining and manufacturing increased by 11.8% and 9.6% respectively. Among them, the coal mining and washing industry increased by 15.2%.

  Need to speed up the bail-out

  Among the 27 provinces, Jiangxi leads the country with a growth rate of 6.9%.

  The data shows that in the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets in Jiangxi Province increased by 15.6% year-on-year, which was 6.3 percentage points higher than the national average. The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 290.73 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year, 5.6 percentage points higher than the national average; The total import and export value of goods trade was 139.39 billion yuan, up 29.0% year-on-year, 18.3 percentage points higher than the national average.

  Investment, consumption and export are the three troikas driving economic growth. These three data in Jiangxi are more eye-catching, especially the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. Because of the epidemic, the growth rate of this indicator in most provinces is lower than 5%, and some even lower than 3%.

  Xiao Zhiying, deputy director of the Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that the impact of the recent epidemic on raw material supply and logistics was gradually transmitted to the production end, and the consumption of contact and aggregation services was also restricted. Accommodation, catering, cultural tourism, transportation and other industries faced certain difficulties. From the economic data in March, the growth rate of some industry indicators slowed down and the downward pressure on the economy increased.

  On April 11th, Wang Yongxin, deputy director of Chengdu Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference that the imported cases from outside the province since March 30th spread quickly, the intergenerational time was short, the number of stops, people involved and merchants affected was more than that of the "2.20 epidemic", and the operating pressure of market participants was further highlighted. It is urgent to introduce new policies and measures to help enterprises and benefit enterprises, support market participants to cope with the impact, tide over difficulties together and ensure stable economic operation.

  Therefore, the Chengdu Municipal Government issued the Policy and Measures to Support the Healthy Development of Market Subjects and Promote Stable Economic Growth. This document supports the healthy development of market players from many aspects, such as reducing production and operation costs and strengthening factor protection.

  In addition, the contribution rate of consumption in GDP growth has increased significantly, and the impact of the decline in consumption growth on the economy has been expanding.

  Yi Xiaoguang said that consumption needs scenes. Although it can be consumed online, some real-life scenes are necessary. Therefore, it is necessary to strike a balance between epidemic prevention and control and normal work and life, and to prevent and control it more scientifically. In addition, the policy should also focus on how to enhance consumption capacity, guide good expectations, make residents willing to spend, dare to spend, and achieve the goal of promoting consumption.

  At present, all localities are promoting the recovery and promotion of consumption in an orderly manner. On April 21st, the executive meeting of Chengdu Municipal Government proposed to promote the rebound of aggregate consumption in an orderly manner, guide cultural and tourism enterprises to innovate tourism products, promote the recovery of wholesale and retail, accommodation, catering, trade and exhibition and other service industries under the premise of strictly implementing epidemic prevention and control measures, and actively carry out a new round of consumer vouchers promotion activities.

  Zeng Junlin also said that more measures should be taken to promote consumption. We will fully implement the policies and measures of the central and provincial committees on promoting consumption, optimize the consumption environment, expand consumption momentum and activate consumer demand. At the same time, accurately help stabilize production. We will do a good job in ensuring the supply and stable prices of bulk commodities and core components, help advantageous industries and key enterprises to ensure stable production, speed up the construction of major projects, and promote the steady recovery of life and contact service industries.

  Xinhua News Agency reported on April 25th that the General Office of the State Council recently issued "Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting Sustainable Recovery of Consumption" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), pointing out that consumption is the final demand, the key link and an important engine to smooth the domestic cycle, which has a lasting driving force for the economy and is related to safeguarding and improving people’s livelihood.

  According to the requirements of combining goal orientation with problem orientation, short-term support and medium-and long-term promotion, the Opinions put forward 20 key measures in five aspects. Including coping with the impact of the epidemic and promoting the orderly recovery and development of consumption; Comprehensively innovate and improve quality, and strive to stabilize the basic consumption disk; Improve the support system and continuously enhance the comprehensive ability of consumption development; Continue to deepen reform and make every effort to create a safe, secure and honest consumption environment; Strengthen safeguard measures and further consolidate the foundation of high-quality development of consumption.

Businessmen give directions? Kun Peng trail "signpost streamer" leads to controversy

In the seventh paragraph of Kunpeng Trail, the reporter saw that many trees were hung with road signs and streamers, with QR codes attached.

Shenzhen Business Daily reporter Wen Canwen/map

Recently, a little red book user posted that the trees along Shenzhen Kunpeng Trail were covered by a large number of colorful "road signs". Although these streamers are euphemistically called "guiding signs", they actually become "camouflage" for commercial advertisements. Netizens called for strict rectification of this phenomenon.

It is reported that most sections of Kunpeng Trail have set up official signs at intervals of 500 meters. In this case, is it still necessary to hang additional outdoor road signs? A few days ago, the reporter visited the 7 th and 10 th paragraphs of Kunpeng Trail on the spot and found that most of the so-called road signs in the wild along the way had a strong commercial atmosphere, which had deviated from the original intention of "guiding the way".

On-site: Commercial advertisements put on the coat of "guiding the way"

Outdoor signposts (commonly known as "signpost streamers") are intended to prevent getting lost and provide directions at key paths or fork roads. The reporter found on the spot that the streamers on Kunpeng Trail are mainly divided into three categories: activity propaganda streamers, commercial advertisements streamers and temporary government guidance streamers.

In the seventh section of Kunpeng Trail (from Zijian Garden to Jimuge), although the official signs are clearly visible along the way, many trees are still hung with road signs and streamers. Although they are under the banner of "helping the donkey friends to guide the way", they are mostly advertising carriers, and many of them are accompanied by QQ numbers or QR codes.

The reporter scanned a streamer QR code printed with the words "Shenzhen is fun and outdoor" and entered a small program of a travel agency. After registering and logging in, users can sign up for travel activities all over the country, and the cost ranges from 0 yuan to several thousand yuan. Another streamer with the small print of "outdoor hiking group" is displayed as a personal WeChat of an employee of a jewelry company in Shenzhen after scanning the code, and its signature includes jewelry products, courses and cultural tourism projects. A similar situation also exists in section 10 of Kunpeng Trail (Wutongshan section).

Controversy: Is it necessary to "flag streamer"?

In response to the phenomenon of "road signs floating" in Kunpeng Trail, the reporter interviewed some citizens randomly.

"The logo system of Shenzhen Kunpeng Trail itself is actually quite perfect," said Zhipeng, a senior hiker. "The density of official road signs is very high, and there is one every few hundred meters. In addition to the standard signs, there are also animal and plant science cards and emergency guidance cards along the way, and there are also clear reminder cards at key intersections. " He bluntly criticized the commercial streamers: "Many streamers are obviously printed with QR codes, that is, the commercial team is propaganda under the guise of’ guiding the way’, and the motivation is too explicit!"

Kobayashi, a novice hiker, holds a different view: "For those of us who are inexperienced, seeing the streamer will really feel at ease, at least indicating that someone has walked this route." She believes that streamers can provide intuitive assistance for hikers who are not familiar with trajectory navigation.

Suggestion: the organizer of outdoor activities should bear the responsibility of cleaning up.

In response to this phenomenon, Cao Jun, vice president of Shenzhen Mountaineering Outdoor Sports Association, pointed out that the organizers of outdoor activities should bear the responsibility of cleaning up. "It is recommended that outdoor clubs clean up the left streamers after the activities. In the road section where the official logo is clear enough, it is not necessary to hang additional signs. "

Pan Xiang, a lawyer of Guangdong Zhongan Law Firm and director of Shenzhen Law Society, said, "The streamer hung by the merchants is called a road sign, which is actually an outdoor advertisement. It is suspected of violating relevant regulatory regulations and is an outdoor advertisement set without approval." He pointed out that the road signs designed by merchants themselves are not necessarily accurate, which may mislead "donkey friends", occupy public resources and pollute the environment after being abandoned.

Official response: Private commercial streamers will be included in the "blacklist"

With the basic connection of the "Three Trails and Three Lines" hiking trail network in Shenzhen, the "road signs" left by various hiking teams are also increasing day by day. "Any commercial advertising streamers and unregistered activities are strictly prohibited from hanging in the Kunpeng Trail area. At the same time, we will also increase the lack of dangerous road signs based on the feedback from hikers, and add safety signs as needed. " The relevant person in charge of the Municipal Urban Management and Comprehensive Law Enforcement Bureau said.

The Municipal Urban Management and Comprehensive Law Enforcement Bureau is speeding up the formulation of the Measures for the Administration of Hiking Trails in Shenzhen, incorporating the relevant management requirements into the legal system, and blacklisting the activity organizations that fail to report as required, set up commercial streamers privately or fail to clean up, so as to restrict them from carrying out activities in Kunpeng Trail. And encourage citizens to participate in supervision and reporting by dialing 12345.

Behind the scenes | How to perform "Wang Xingren"? Revealing the small coup of film and television dog training


Special feature of 1905 film network From "Loyal Dog Eight Men" to "Goodbye, Li Kele" and then to "Dog God", there are many movies with dogs as actors on the big screen this year. Dogs have conquered the audience with sincere and exquisite acting skills. We can’t help wondering, compared with human actors, how do dog actors complete their performances?



Especially in Goodbye, Li Cola, the role of "Coke" has gone through three stages: childhood, middle age and old age. How to train puppies at different stages? Is it difficult to train dogs to film?


In this issue of Behind the scenes, we came to the studio of Li Mingqing, the dog trainer of Goodbye, Li Kele, and listened to his wonderful stories about dogs before and after the stage.


Lovely "Little Coke"


From the first season of the TV series "Dog Seven" to the movie "Goodbye, Li Cola", Li Mingqing’s partner director Wang Xiaolie participated in the creation of many film and television works, and he is a very experienced dog training guide.


According to reports, the selection of dog actors mainly depends on whether the puppy has power to drive. "Food or toys, with these as motivation, actors can take it away."


Unlike the daily family dog-raising club that trains dogs not to eat strangers’ food, the habit of not eating strange food must not be trained for dogs participating in film and television shooting. If the dog is not interested in the actor’s food, the actor can’t take it away, and he will only follow the dog training instructions.



Nowadays, the one-year-old "Little Coke" filmed "Goodbye, Li Cola" for just over two months, which was a particularly naughty time.


In the first half of the film, there is a scene in which it "unlocks and escapes" from the pet store. In retrospect, Li Mingqing admitted that it was not difficult to make the dog escape from the pet shop. At that time, he stayed outside the pet store to guide the puppy to break the glass, which was quickly completed.



The difficulty of the whole scene is that when Seven and NI YAN walk outside the glass, "Little Coke" has to look after them all the time.


Because the actor is going to pass by the pet shop, he can’t stay where he is to guide the puppy, otherwise there will be a goof shot. At that time, there was a rail car under the window of the shooting scene, and the dog trainer stayed near the rail car to take things to attract dogs. Sometimes to the left, sometimes to the right, while cooperating with the actor’s route, while constantly attracting the attention of "Little Coke".



In Li Mingqing’s view, this kind of scene is not easy to shoot. Fortunately, director Wang Xiaolie is especially good at filming "Dog Show", and Seven himself has a dog. In "Goodbye, Li Kele", everyone cooperated very well.


Naughty "Chinese coke"


"There are many scenes and the director is demanding. In Goodbye, Li Cola, the most difficult thing to train is’ Chinese Coke’. " Li Mingqing said.


"China Cola" was less than three years old when it was filmed. Being active by nature, it is very easy to get excited, but there are many scenes that need to be quiet. The director has repeatedly asked it to shut up and walk slowly. Li Mingqing bluntly said that "China Cola" has a lively personality, and the atmosphere at the shooting scene is high, which makes it very difficult to complete the conversion from excitement to silence.



"How to make it shut up quickly when it is excited?"


Attract it with food and arouse its curiosity, and it will shut up for a few seconds. At this time, the camera needs to quickly capture its quiet state. Li Mingqing added that the method of arousing the curiosity of dogs can’t be commonly used. When its curiosity disappears, it has no effect.


So at that time, the dog trainers also worked overtime to train the concentration of "China Cola". Close its mouth, keep it stable, and then slowly release it. This is actually a command to shut up, and it will understand after learning.



There should be no influence or interference on the shooting scene. When it is necessary to take a quiet picture of the dog, Li Mingqing will hold his chin slightly to make him understand the instructions and keep quiet, and then quietly leave the scene and exit the picture, so as to keep the shooting going smoothly.



"Coke in China" accidentally poured coke into hot pot, which became a big "famous scene" of the film.How is this done?"Put the food under the bottle. When it goes to get food, it just knocks over the coke. "



At first, Li Mingqing specially trained the skills of "Chinese coke" jumping on the stove for this scene. Later, when I arrived at the scene, I found that the scene setting had changed. So he played a simple food game with the dog, and it completed the task well.


Old Coke "Xiao Qi" and body double "Xiao Wu"


The dog who plays "Old Coke" is called "Xiaoqi". He is eleven years old this year, which is equivalent to more than seventy years old of human beings. In Li Mingqing’s eyes, it is a "star" with rich experience in filming.


Xiaoqi not only participated in the series Goodbye, Li Ke Le and Shenquan Xiaoqi, but also appeared in Dogs in China and Spicy Metamorphosis, and also owned the imperial body double Xiaowu.



From the beginning of "Shenquan Xiaoqi", "Xiaowu" became a "high imitation version of Xiaoqi".


Talking about the reasons why dog actors also have body double, Li Mingqing explained that body double’s role is to assist in dimming. When "Xiaoqi" has a scene, it will let "Xiaoqi" assist in the adjustment first, and then let it play after the team adjusts the light to avoid consuming the energy and state of "Xiaoqi" in advance. Secondly, when a scene is divided into two groups of AB scenes, the distant shot can be shot by body double, thus improving the creative efficiency.



Li Mingqing said frankly that for Xiaoqi, the most difficult part of this film is the picture of her meeting with Seven.


"Old Coke" took the initiative to remind Li Heng that it was not an ordinary puppy, and it had the shadow of Sinan’s father.



Unlike people who can easily get their responses when they meet dogs, it is not a simple matter to train dogs to meet humans.


Li Mingqing introduced that the first step is to train the dog to learn to sit, and after he learns to sit, he has to add a little thoughtfulness. For example, with the help of the illusion of sight, some food is hidden in the actor’s clothes where the dog can see but the audience can’t, and "tempt" the dog to meet the actor when he gets the food.



Despite the tight schedule of actors and the tight shooting plan, the director has always stressed the need to ensure that dogs can have a full rest during the creation of Goodbye, Li Kele. Dogs have a lot of scenes, and the director can always arrange them properly. When he shoots the penultimate and third scenes every day, he will intimately let them go back to rest in advance. Li Mingqing bluntly said that this warm care made him particularly moved.



Like Seven and NI YAN in Goodbye, Li Cola, Li Mingqing, who deals with hundreds of puppies every day, has already regarded every cute little guy around him as his closest family.


2023 Challenger Hellcat Red Key Passion Down One Million

The length, width and height of 23 Dodge Hellcat SRT are 5027mm, 1923mm and 1461mm respectively. From the side photos, you can more intuitively understand its slender body design. The 20-inch granite crystal aluminum alloy wheel is matched with the 20-inch all-season performance tire, aiming to make the car have better dynamic performance. If a friend thinks that this design is not personalized enough, he can choose the side stripes of the challenger car body to further improve the recognition of the car. 24-hour exclusive hotline [150 2254 9999 (explained by Manager Sun of WeChat)]

  In terms of the appearance of the 2023 Dodge Challenger SRT Hellcat, the new car continues the American muscle car style with very tough and powerful challenger family models. At the same time, the new car has added a set of wide-body kit on the basis of the ordinary version, which is mainly aimed at widening its wheel eyebrows, and has increased by 3.5 inches (88.9mm) compared with the ordinary version, enabling the new car to use wider tires. In addition, the new car will also provide 13 different body colors, and provide a variety of body pull flowers for consumers to choose from.
24-hour exclusive hotline [150 2254 9999 (explained by Manager Sun of WeChat)]

  In the details of the 2023 Challenger SRT Hellcat, the middle net and the lower air intake of the new car are also painted in black, and there is a unique logo of SRT on the side of the middle net. In terms of wheels, SRT Super Stock adopts a set of 18x11J (18 inches in diameter and 11 inches in width) rims, which are the same as those of challenger SRT Demon, and is matched with the NT05R linear acceleration special tires with 315/40 R18 specifications, so that the car has three times the grip of SRT Hellcat models. In terms of brakes, the front wheel of the new car is equipped with an upgraded Brembo four-piston caliper and a 14.2-inch front brake disc.

24-hour exclusive hotline [150 2254 9999 (explained by Manager Sun of WeChat)]

  In terms of the power of 2023 Dodge Challenger SRT Hellcat, the new car is equipped with a 6.2-liter HEMI V8 supercharged engine. Compared with the challenger Hellcat Redeye model, its maximum power is increased from 807 horsepower to 818 horsepower, and the red line speed of the engine is increased from 6300rpm to 6400rpm. The transmission system is matched with a TorqueFlite 8HP90 8-speed automatic manual transmission. Dodge official said that the acceleration time of the new car from 0 to 96 km/h is 3.25 seconds, and it only takes 10.5 seconds to complete the linear acceleration of a quarter mile, but due to the tires of the new car, its top speed is limited to 168 mph (270 km/h).

 

24-hour exclusive hotline [150 2254 9999 (explained by Manager Sun of WeChat)]

Sincerely satisfied with the service | It’s so easy to check the authenticity of the invoice! Put away this raiders quickly!

Three-piece set of modern young people’s life continuation methods

Express delivery, take-away, online car rental

As a financial person, I

I have to "fight" with various invoices every day.

Blockchain invoice, special VAT invoice

Special electronic invoices for value-added tax,

Electronic ordinary invoice of value-added tax

……

Fortunately, I also have a few "magic weapons to continue my life"

Can easily identify the authenticity of invoices.

Let me show you ~

01

State Administration of Taxation (SAT)

National VAT invoice inspection platform

01

Uniform Resource Locator(URL)

https://inv-veri.chinatax.gov.cn/fpcysm.html

02

Inspection category range

1. Special VAT invoice

2. Special electronic VAT invoice

3. General VAT invoice (folding ticket) and general VAT invoice (rolled ticket)

4. VAT electronic ordinary invoice (including toll road toll VAT electronic ordinary invoice)

5. Uniform invoice for motor vehicle sales

6. Unified invoice for used car sales

03

Inspection time range

1. Can check the recentWithin five yearsInvoices issued by VAT invoice management system

2. The invoice issued on the same day can be inspected on the same day.

!

Tips

one

The number of times that each invoice can be queried online every day is5 times, please check again the next day after exceeding the number of times.

2

The platform only provides the inspection results of the queried invoice face information. If there is any doubt about the inspection results, please bring the original invoice to the local tax authorities for identification.

02

Shenzhen Municipal Taxation Bureau

Electronic tax bureauInvoice inspection platform

01

Uniform Resource Locator(URL)

https://etax.shenzhen.chinatax.gov.cn/BsfwtWeb/apps/views/fp/fpcy/fp_fpcy.html

02

Inspection category range

General machine invoicing, blockchain electronic invoicing

03

Inspection time range

Provide onlyWithin three yearsInvoice inquiry

Dear financial friends,

Never again because you can’t tell

Distressed by the authenticity of the invoice

Awesome!

Source: Shenzhen Taxation

Review and Prospect of World Economic Situation in 2014-2015

In 2014, the global economic recovery was basically consolidated, the labor market continued to improve, prices fell steadily, and the level of public debt was generally stable. At the same time, the differentiation of economic growth rate of various economies has intensified, and international trade and foreign direct investment are still in a low-speed growth channel, lacking growth momentum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the world economic growth rate in 2014 will be 3.3% in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) and 2.6% in terms of market exchange rate, which is 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points lower than its forecast data in October 2013, respectively. Considering the protracted crisis in Ukraine and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by western countries, the spread of Ebola epidemic in West Africa and the continuous tension and turmoil in the Middle East, especially the fact that some major economies are facing increasing downward pressure and the time lag of stimulus policies, it is not excluded that the final statistical result of the world economic growth rate in 2014 will be lower than the current IMF estimate.

Review of the overall situation of the world economy in 2014

In order to comprehensively reflect the overall development of the world economy in 2014, the analysis of this report will be carried out from five aspects: economic growth, employment situation, price level, trade and investment, and public debt.

I. Growth: The recovery is slow and the growth rate is divided.

In 2014, the world economy generally continued the slow recovery of the previous year, and the economic growth rate was lower than generally expected, and the growth rate differentiation of various economies intensified. According to the forecast data of IMF in October, the world economic growth rate in 2014 was 3.3%, which was the same as that in 2013. The economic growth rate of developed economies is 1.8%. Among them, the US economic recovery was consolidated, with an increase of 2.2%; The euro zone economy reversed the negative growth of last year and increased by 0.8%; Japan’s economy declined, growing by 0.9%. The economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies is 4.4%, which continues the continuous decline since 2010. The economic growth rates of Brazil, Russian, Indian and China are expected to be 0.3%, 0.2%, 5.6% and 7.4% respectively.

Second, employment: overall improvement but different performance.

The US labor market improved significantly in 2014, and the unemployment rate continued to decline. In November 2014, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, the lowest level since August 2008. Employment in Europe improved slightly. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the first three quarters of 2014 was 11.6%, of which the unemployment rate in September was 11.5%. In the first three quarters of 2014, the unemployment rate in Japan further dropped to 3.7%. The employment situation in emerging market countries has generally improved, but the performance is not the same. In the first three quarters of 2014, the registered urban unemployment rate in China was 4.1%. In September, Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, the lowest monthly level since 2002. The unemployment rates in Russia and South Africa in the first three quarters were 5.1% and 25.4% respectively.

Third, prices: generally stable and declining, and the risk of deflation is rising.

In 2014, the global inflation level was lower than that in 2013. According to OECD statistics, in September 2014, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States rose by 1.7% year-on-year, up by 0.2 percentage points from the end of 2013. The CPI of Germany, Britain, France and Italy increased by 0.8%, 1.2%, 0.3% and -0.2% respectively, which decreased by 0.6, 0.8, 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared with the end of 2013. Japan reversed the long-term price downturn. In September 2014, the CPI rose to 3.2% year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points from the end of 2013, and it is expected to be 2.8% for the whole year. According to the IMF forecast data, the inflation rate in emerging markets and developing economies was 5.5% in 2014, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 2013.

IV. Trade and investment: Low growth

According to UNCTAD data, global trade in goods increased by 1.6% in the first half of 2014. According to the forecast data of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the global trade in goods increased by 3.1% in 2014. At the same time, the trade balance of major economies is generally balanced. According to UNCTAD’s forecast data, the global FDI inflow in 2014 was 1.618 trillion US dollars, an increase of 11.5%. Among them, FDI inflows in developed economies and developing economies increased by 34.8% and -1.8% respectively.

V. Public debt: stable and generally controllable.

The IMF predicts that the fiscal deficit of developed economies will fall to 3.9% of GDP in 2014, and the developed economies as a whole have curbed the rapid rise of government debt. It is estimated that in 2014, the total government debt of the United States, the euro zone and Japan will account for 105.6%, 96.4% and 245.1% of GDP, respectively, up by 1.4, 1.2 and 1.9 percentage points compared with 2013; The ratio of German government’s total debt to GDP is estimated to be 75.5%, down 2.9 percentage points from 2013. The fiscal deficit and public debt of emerging markets and developing economies both increased slightly. In 2014, the fiscal deficit and total government debt accounted for 2.1% and 40.1% of GDP, respectively, up 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points from 2013.

Characteristics of World Economic Operation in 2014

The world economy showed many new features and changes in 2014. To sum up, it is mainly manifested in the following aspects.

First, the adjustment of US monetary policy has produced spillover effects.

On October 29th, 2014, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would stop buying assets, thus ending the unconventional quantitative easing monetary policy (QE) launched in November, 2008. For other economies, the spillover effect of US monetary policy adjustment will bring great pressure to them. On the one hand, the gradual tightening of liquidity in the United States may lead to further capital flight from other economies, especially emerging markets and developing economies, currency depreciation and impact on its fragile banking system; On the other hand, the monetary policies of other economies have to be adjusted adaptively, thus adding new uncertainties.

Second, the monetary policy of developed economies has diverged

Although the Federal Reserve has begun to withdraw from quantitative easing and may enter the channel of raising interest rates in mid-2015, developed economies such as the euro zone and Japan continue to implement the largest expansionary monetary policy in history. On June 5, 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 10 basis points to 0.15%, making it a record low. For the first time, the overnight deposit rate of banks was reduced to negative, which was -0.1%. On October 31, the Bank of Japan announced that it would expand the purchase scale of government bonds from 50 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen per year. Significantly, the unconventional expansionary monetary policies in Europe and Japan run counter to the adjustment direction of American monetary policy.

Third, emerging markets and developing economies have entered a medium-and high-speed growth cycle.

According to IMF data, from 2000 to 2012, the average annual GDP growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies was 6.2%, but since 2010, the GDP growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies has dropped from 7.5% to 4.4% in 2014. The reason is that the ultra-low interest rate environment for many years began to disappear with the turn of American monetary policy; Secondly, with the slowdown of growth and the weakening of unconventional incentive efficiency, the commodity boom cycle has come to an end; Thirdly, the dividend-rich period brought about by the previous reforms in various countries has come to an end, and the residual potential of the government supporting economic growth has been weakened; Finally, the opening cycle of developed economies has changed, and the opportunities for many emerging markets and developing economies to gain asymmetric benefits from the market opening of developed economies have decreased.

Fourth, international trade has entered a low-speed growth channel.

The reason for the mediocre growth rate of global trade is not only the slow growth rate of the global economy, but also the lack of progress in global multilateral and bilateral trade and investment liberalization negotiations. However, the more basic reason is the basic stereotype of the pattern of international trade division of labor. The fastest growth period of global trade after World War II occurred between 1989 and 2006, during which the growth rate of trade was 2-3 times that of economy, mainly due to the end of the Cold War, especially the beginning of fragmentation of production chain, which was marked by the establishment of the North American Free Trade Area in 1994. China’s entry into WTO in 2001 also greatly promoted the dazzling growth of international trade. Since 2007, with the establishment of global value chain, the world has entered a period when trade and output have increased at the same level.

Five, multiple factors lead to the collapse of crude oil prices.

On December 18, 2014, the average price of crude oil in the spot market in London, England, fell to $56.1/barrel, which was nearly 50% lower than the high point in June. The direct cause of the drop in crude oil price is the weakness of energy demand and the increase of supply. The growth rate of major energy importers such as Europe and China has slowed down, and the United States has also reduced its crude oil imports due to the continuous increase in oil and gas production, resulting in a decrease in energy demand in the international market. At the same time, Russia and Saudi Arabia, two major oil producers, have recently increased their production. Oil supply and demand and price changes are also due to the oil-gas game between the United States, Saudi Arabia and OPEC and the reduction of Russian oil revenue by western countries by suppressing oil prices. In addition, the US dollar index has been fluctuating and rising since the Federal Reserve gradually withdrew from the quantitative easing policy, which has contributed to the decline in oil prices. The sharp fluctuation of oil prices has a far-reaching impact. It is estimated that a drop of $10 per barrel in oil price means that 0.5% of global GDP is transferred from oil exporting countries to oil importing countries.

6. Global debt continued to rise and began to threaten the consolidation of recovery.

According to the Geneva World Economic Report, in 2001, the global total debt covering the private sector and the public sector accounted for 160% of the national income; In 2009, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, this proportion was about 200%; In 2013, this proportion rose to 215% again. Judging from historical experience, all "economic miracles" will come to an end after the debt is high. High debt level inevitably requires maintaining a low level of interest rate, otherwise the debtor will face great pressure to pay off debts. However, the global interest rate level is generally low, and the cost of borrowing is reduced, thus accelerating the accumulation of debt. The coexistence of low interest rates and rising asset prices makes the balance sheet look less stretched. However, once there is a global leverage crisis-asset price decline forces credit crunch-or a liquidity crisis, asset prices will fall further and form a vicious circle. At present, some economies have seen the trend of "toxic combination" of low inflation, low growth and high debt accumulating. De-leveraging is both imminent and has a long way to go.

Seven, Western sanctions against Russia have led to subtle changes in international economic relations.

On March 16th, 2014, the Crimea and Sevastopol regions of Ukraine held a referendum on the issue of "leaving Ukraine and entering Russia". On the 17th, the Crimean Parliament declared its independence from Ukraine and applied to join the Russian Federation according to the results of the referendum. On the 18th, the Russian Federation signed a treaty of accession to Russia with the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol. As a result, western economies, represented by the United States and Europe, began to launch several rounds of economic sanctions against Russia, which covered the prohibition of entry of specific personnel, freezing of assets of entities and individuals, suspension of financing cooperation, embargo on specific commodities and restrictions on technology transfer. The economic sanctions imposed by western countries have a rapid adverse impact on Russia, such as capital flight, devaluation of the ruble, slow growth and reduced trade. At present, western sanctions against Russia have had an impact on the flow of international trade and the closeness between countries. If sanctions persist and are constantly strengthened, it is likely to cause profound changes in global geopolitics and economy.

8. China has played a prominent role in international and regional cooperation.

At the summit held in Brazil in July 2014, BRICS leaders decided to start the preparatory plan for the BRICS Development Bank. The BRICS Development Bank, which is expected to officially start operation in 2016, marks that BRICS cooperation has entered a substantive stage of institutionalized construction. On October 24, 2014, 21 countries signed a memorandum on the establishment of an Asian infrastructure investment bank in Beijing. In November 2014, the supreme leader of president, China announced the establishment of the Silk Road Fund at the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Business Leaders Summit to provide investment and financing support for infrastructure construction, resource development, industrial cooperation and other related projects along the Belt and Road; In the same month, 21 members of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathered in Beijing to discuss such important issues as "promoting regional economic integration", "promoting economic innovation, development, reform and growth" and "strengthening all-round interconnection and infrastructure construction" around the theme of "building a future-oriented Asia-Pacific partnership", and new progress has been made in the construction of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP).

Income inequality is increasingly threatening the long-term growth of the world economy.

The inequality of income and wealth has become an unavoidable problem today. According to the British "Economist" data, at present, the richest 8.6% of the adult population in the world owns 85.3% of the world’s wealth, while the poor, who account for 69.8% of the world’s total population, own only 2.9% of the world’s total wealth. A booster that makes income distribution the focus is Thomas? The publication of Picchetti’s Capital in the 21st Century. Picchetti’s core view is that the rate of return on private capital is greater than the growth rate of output, which means that wealth accumulation is faster than the growth of output and wages, which inevitably makes entrepreneurs gradually become rentiers and make them dominate those who have nothing but labor ability more and more strongly; The proper solution is not to levy enough taxes on capital, but to levy an annual progressive capital tax in order to protect the incentives for new primitive accumulation.

Prospect of the overall situation of the world economy in 2015

According to the forecast data of IMF in October 2014, the world economic growth rate calculated by PPP in 2015 was 3.8%. Among them, the developed economies grew by 2.3%, the United States by 3.1%, the euro zone by 1.3% and Japan by 0.8%. Emerging markets and developing economies as a whole grew by 5.0%, China by 7.1%, India by 6.4%, Brazil by 1.4%, Russia by 0.5% and South Africa by 2.3%. At the market exchange rate, the world economy grew by 3.2% in 2015. In June 2014, the World Bank predicted that the world economic growth rate calculated by PPP and market exchange rate in 2015 would be 4.0% and 3.4% respectively. In May 2014, the United Nations predicted that the world economic growth rate calculated by PPP and market exchange rate in 2015 would be 3.8% and 3.2% respectively. In May 2014, OECD predicted that the world economic growth rate calculated by PPP in 2015 would be 3.9%. Looking forward to the world economic trend in 2015, there are the following problems worthy of attention.

First, the extent to which the monetary policies of the United States run counter to those of other important economies such as Europe and Japan and the seriousness of the consequences.

With the withdrawal of quantitative easing policy from the United States, whether to raise interest rates has become the focus of US monetary policy. Once inflation rises, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in the first half of 2015 will increase. While the monetary policy in the United States is tightening, Europe and Japan continue to increase the stimulus. This reverse macro policy will have many effects, the most obvious of which is exchange rate fluctuation. The appreciation of the US dollar is beneficial to the recovery of European and Japanese exports, but at the same time, it will cause capital to gather in the United States, thus offsetting the effect of the loose monetary policy of the European and Japanese central banks. If the exchange rate of the US dollar fluctuates greatly, it will also cause large-scale changes in global asset prices and capital.

Second, the possibility of the European economy out of the downturn

At the beginning of November, 2014, the Council of the European Central Bank finally agreed to inject 1 trillion euros (about 1.24 trillion US dollars) for the purchase of guaranteed bonds and asset-backed bonds, so as to prevent the euro zone economy from falling into deflation. The balance sheet of the European Central Bank expanded from 2 trillion euros to the peak of 3 trillion euros. If the euro zone continues to face the threat of Japanese-style deflation, this move will also pave the way for the large-scale purchase of government bonds in the future. The Council of the European Central Bank also decided to keep the refinancing rate at an ultra-low level of 0.05%. Such a large-scale and long-term loose monetary policy has laid a hidden danger for the long-term growth of the economy while preventing further deterioration of the economy. Without the corresponding and powerful investment and growth support of the real economy, it is difficult to completely rule out the possibility that the European economy will fall into recession again.

Third, the ultimate effectiveness of "Abenomics"

In 2013, after the first two arrows of "Abenomics" were launched, it achieved certain results, and the Japanese economy achieved a growth rate of 1.5%. However, since 2014, the market’s policy expectation of "Abenomics" began to decline, and the signs of Japanese economic stagnation also appeared. The main reason is that the third arrow of "Abenomics" has not been shot, that is, the existing policies have not fully touched on structural reforms, such as rigid labor market and excessive corporate tax. At the same time, the ultra-high level of national debt, aging population, declining productivity growth, slow progress in agricultural reform and the second round of consumption tax increase from 8% to 10% in 2015 will all affect the realization of the "Abenomics" goal to varying degrees.

Fourth, the scope, intensity and effectiveness of the new round of reform in major emerging economies

In order to implement the strategic plan of the 18th CPC National Congress on comprehensively deepening reform, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in November 2013 adopted the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues of Comprehensively Deepening Reform, covering 15 fields and 60 specific tasks. At present, some reform measures have been implemented. In May 2014, the new Indian Prime Minister Narendra? After Modi took office, he immediately launched a large-scale economic reform plan with the goal of "economic growth", including increasing investment, promoting industrial growth, improving the business environment and strictly controlling the fiscal deficit. The "dividend" released by the reform of China and India will directly determine whether they can continue to maintain the current medium-to-high-speed sustainable growth situation. At the same time, whether the economic downturn of Brazil and Russia can be contained will also have an important impact on the economic performance of the entire emerging markets and developing countries.

V. Potential risks in the global financial system, especially in developed countries

According to the Economist magazine, the next crisis will come from the asset management industry. In 2013, global asset management companies managed assets as high as US$ 87 trillion, accounting for three-quarters of banking assets, of which Black Rock Asset Management Company managed assets of US$ 4.4 trillion, larger than any bank. However, these huge asset management companies are not systemically important financial institutions (SIFIS), so they are not supervised by financial supervision departments. In order to meet the conservative accounting requirements, their profit model has begun to become an unstable amplifier, among which the fastest growth is the exchange-traded funds active in the short-term bond market. In January 2014, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) raised the question of whether to include asset management companies in SIFIS, and the Bank of England also warned about the potential harm of its activities. Once there is a problem with an asset management company that is less regulated, its chain reaction is bound to spread rapidly.

VI. Trends of geopolitics and economy

The scope, intensity and duration of sanctions imposed by western countries on Russia will not only affect the economy of Russia and countries with close economic relations with it, but also affect the geopolitical relations of relevant countries. After the mid-term elections in November 2014, the Republican Party controlled the Senate and the House of Representatives, which made the Democratic President a "lame duck" prematurely, and also added variables to the sensitive and subtle big country game. As an important energy center in the world, the stability of the Middle East is closely related to the rise and fall of the Islamic State. Once a major terrorist attack succeeds in other countries in the world, the first to be affected is the supply and price of oil, and the further consolidation of the world economic recovery will also be threatened.

Seven, large-scale epidemic and natural disasters

In 2014, the outbreak and spread of Ebola in West African countries have had a negative impact on the economic and social stability of some countries. If it is not effectively controlled and spread to major economies, it will affect global economic growth. At the same time, sudden serious natural disasters will also bring shocks to the economies of relevant countries.

In view of the current basic situation of the world economy and various signs of its development trend, and based on the description and analysis of the overall operation of the world economy in 2014, this report holds that the probability of a sharp recovery of the global economy in 2015 is small, and compared with 2014, it is more likely that the economic growth rate will be basically flat or slightly increased, that is, the growth rate calculated by PPP is 3.3%, and the growth rate calculated by market exchange rate is 2.8%. Among the four major economies in the United States, Europe, China and Japan, China is still likely to continue the inertia of the past years and become the country with the greatest contribution to global economic growth.

(The first author is the director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; The second author is the deputy director of the International Political Economy Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

(Contemporary worldmagazineAuthorized People’s Daily Online-the Communist Party of China (CPC) Press Release, please do not reprint.)   

> > > Click to enter the "National Party Construction Journal Expo"