On the joys and sorrows of A-shares in 2015
As the saying goes, "bull market makes people crazy, bear market makes people grow". In the past year, all investors of A shares must have felt deeply about this. From the "leveraged bull" and "reformed bull" at the beginning of the year, to the huge earthquake in the middle of the year and the gradual stabilization at the end of the year, investors generally felt the feeling of riding a roller coaster, and the scenes of "down limit of thousands of shares", "daily limit of thousands of shares" and even "suspension of thousands of shares" also increased everyone’s knowledge. On the first trading day in early 2016, investors may wish to review the A-share market in 2015, hoping that the future market can move forward in reflection and truly let investors feel the dividends brought by the "reform cow" in the new year.
9.4%
A-shares rose by 9.4% in 2015, the first time in eight years that they rose for two consecutive years.
72%
What is violent shock? In 2015, the annual amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index was as high as 72%. The warning of ambush in the ups and downs of the market is never out of date: the stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.
5178.19
On June 12, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the highest point of this bull market: 5178.19 points, setting a new high in the past seven and a half years. Li Daxiao, chief economist of Yingda Securities, called this "the top of the earth".
2850.70
From June 15th to August 26th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 45%, and the lowest point was 2850.70 on August 26th, and the biggest drop of the Growth Enterprise Market was 56%.
20222
The data shows that in 2015, the per capita profit of A-share shareholders was 20,222 yuan, with a yield of 12.41%. The proportion of profitable people is 62%, and the proportion of losing people is 38%. Shareholders with a profit rate of less than 20% accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 46.52%; 22.77% made a profit of more than 50%. Among the shareholders who lost money, the proportion of shareholders who lost less than 20% was 51.84%, and the proportion of shareholders who lost more than 50% was 8.08%. Among the profit-making people, about 70% of the shareholders earn less than 50,000 yuan, and about 80% of the shareholders lose less than 50,000 yuan. According to the regional ranking, Shanghai investors are the most profitable, with a per capita profit of 39,950 yuan.
5129
By the end of 2015, there were 5,129 companies listed on the New Third Board, 3.26 times that at the end of 2014; The total market value reached 2.46 trillion yuan, 4.35 times higher than the total market value of 459.1 billion yuan at the end of 2014. At present, the price-earnings ratio of the New Third Board is 47.23 times.
Sun-drying A-share transcripts
Name Current Price 2015
margin of increase
Venezuela IBC14588.25278.06%MSCI Jamaica 2010.4193% Shenzhen Component Index 12664.8914.98% Germany DAX10743.0113.45% Shanghai Composite Index 3539.189.41% Nikkei 22519033.719.01.
From the perspective of the world, A-shares delivered a good report card in 2015, with Shenzhen Component Index slightly ahead of Germany DAX Index, followed by Shanghai Composite Index. However, A-shares are not the most "crazy" stock market. In fact, the most "crazy" stock market in the world is Venezuela, with an increase of 278%, and the Venezuelan stock market has been ranked first in the global stock market for several consecutive years. However, the surge in Venezuela’s stock market is not due to the strong economy. On the contrary, the rise in Venezuela’s stock market is mainly the result of the currency collapse. Some analysts said that panicked investors used the stock market to hedge against the rapid depreciation of the currency. The market index of Jamaica Stock Exchange, a Caribbean island country, ranked second in the world with an increase of 93% during the year.
Thousand-share limit
The thousand-share limit is probably one of the most representative shots of the stock market turmoil in 2015. According to statistics, the market has fallen by more than 5% for more than 10 times this year, with the biggest drop of 8.49% on August 24, while the previous drop of more than 8% was on July 27, less than a month apart. The plunge occurred intensively in June, July and August.
From June 19, 2015 to September 16, 2015, in just three months, there were 16 scenes of A-shares’ daily limit, and it was very rare that there was a daily limit of 1,000 shares in an average of four trading days. It is worth noting that there was a daily limit of more than 2,000 shares on August 24th, and only 15 stocks rose, which was the least among the previous daily limit of 1,000 shares. The turnover was also at the level of land volume, and the market was extremely weak. Statistics show that this round of turmoil has reduced the market value of circulation in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets by a total of 22.9 trillion yuan, and the per capita loss of investors is nearly 240,000 yuan, with a loss ratio as high as 40%.
Specifically, the margin financing and securities lending system has given the A-share futures market-oriented core, but some analysts believe that the rapid proliferation of leverage has shaken the fulcrum of the market (the financing scale exceeded 100 billion yuan in mid-January 2013, 23 months later, it exceeded 1 trillion yuan in mid-December 2014, and reached a historical peak of 2.27 trillion yuan on June 18, 2015). The abnormal scale comparison of margin financing and securities lending hinders the hedging of the market’s long-short mechanism (on April 9, 2015, the balance of margin financing reached a record high of 10.233 billion yuan, while the financing scale peaked at 2.27 trillion yuan, which was 222 times that of the former).
In addition, some insiders attributed the A-share plunge to the high proportion of retail investors: as of the end of September 2015, 76.25% of the accounts held less than 100,000 yuan, and only 2.13% held positions with a market value of more than 1 million yuan.
2015 "National Team" Rescue Timetable
★ On June 27th, after the "6.26" plunge of more than 7%, the central bank announced that financial institutions would implement the targeted cuts to required reserve ratios and cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points from June 28th.
★ On July 1st, Shenzhen-Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that it would reduce the market transaction costs. When the plunge occurred, the CSRC relaxed the restrictions on the two financings, and the brokers and customers negotiated on their own.
★ On July 3, the CSRC suggested reducing the number of IPOs; Under the direct intervention of the State Council, 28 companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange suspended their IPOs and returned the subscribed funds.
★ On July 3, the CSRC said that Central Huijin Company had entered the market and bought shares to save the market.
★ On July 4th, 25 Public Offering of Fund companies announced that they would actively purchase partial stock funds.
★ On July 4th, 21 securities companies announced that they would invest in the purchase of blue-chip stocks of not less than 120 billion yuan.
★ On July 5th, the central bank announced that it would provide unlimited liquidity support to the securities companies, and the CSRC confirmed that central huijin had bought the open-end fund index ETF. CICC restricts the opening of futures positions, especially the malicious short positions.
Securities companies buy a large number of shares in the capacity of "stabilization fund". From entering the market in early July to August 14th, the Securities and Futures Commission announced "generally not entering the market", and the total amount of funds used to rescue the market was at least 1.5 trillion yuan. According to Wind’s statistics, as of September 30th, among the top 10 tradable shareholders disclosed by A-share listed companies, there were 1,365 listed companies, accounting for 49% of A-shares, including 561 in Shanghai, 233 in Shenzhen, 354 in small and medium-sized board and 217 in Growth Enterprise Market, accounting for about 7% of the total A-share tradable shares.
HOMS system and umbrella trust
Noun interpretation
HOMS is a system developed by Hang Seng Electronics Company in 2012, and its full name is "Hang Seng Order Management System". HOMS system has two important functions: first, it can separate the assets managed by private equity funds and hand them over to different traders for management; The second is to divide positions flexibly, thus solving the practical problems such as insufficient traders and division of positions in private equity funds.
In actual operation, the fund-matching company uses HOMS system to distribute the funds under a securities account into several independent small units for independent trading and accounting functions (that is, umbrella warehouse). Through cooperation with brokers, it provides leveraged transactions in the name of entrusted fund management or income exchange. The parent account is directly connected with brokers by HOMS system, and the sub-accounts are distributed to individuals for operation, and the annual interest of financing is agreed. In this process, the real-name registration system of the securities firm is completely overhead, and the fund-raising company acts as a fund broker. The essence of its business is to raise funds at a relatively low interest rate from financial institutions such as banks or higher-level fund-raising platforms, and then lend them to investors for stock trading at a higher interest rate, thus earning the intermediate interest margin. It can be said that through HOMS system, OTC fund-raising companies easily broke through the restrictions of account real-name registration system, and started trading with brokers and banks, and were not regulated.
Before HOMS appeared, off-site fund-raising had existed for a long time. However, the previous off-site fund-raising was conducted in an offline and manual way, which was always difficult to expand due to the restrictions of account opening, capital and manpower. With the help of HOMS system, under the wave of Internet finance, a large number of P2P platforms set foot in the fund-raising business, and easily mobilized highly leveraged fund-raising funds by batch processing the fund-raising demand. At the same time, a large number of funds from the banking system also flowed into the stock market through fixed-income products, which formed a potential risk to the entire financial system.
In fact, HOMS is not the only tool for OTC fund-raising to access securities companies. According to the data disclosed by China Securities Association on June 30th, OTC fund-raising is mainly operated through the HOMS system of Hang Seng Company and the systems of Shanghai Mingchuang and Straight Flush. The customer assets accessed by the three systems totaled nearly 500 billion yuan, of which HOMS system was about 440 billion yuan, Shanghai Mingchuang was about 36 billion yuan, and Flush was about 6 billion yuan.
On July 13, 2015, the CSRC organized inspection and law enforcement forces to go to Hang Seng Electronics to interview relevant executives. On July 16th, after the visit of the Supervision Bureau, Hang Seng Electronics announced that it would close the HOMS account opening function and would not increase the capital of the existing account.