Multiple positive resonances, the ＂periodic table of elements＂ market hit, and the ＂surging＂ gold stocks ushered in the main rising wave

　　"The international gold price continues to hit a record high" on the hot search, with the soaring gold price, the investment boss who laid out it made a lot of money. Bridgewater (China) Investment’s three products are heavily invested in gold ETFs, with a total of 181.90 million fund shares; tens of billions of private high-tech assets Deng Xiaofeng’s two products hold () 699 million shares, and the company’s share price has risen by more than 40.53% this year.

　　For the "skyrocketing" gold price and gold stocks, can the market continue and will there be a main upswing? A number of institutions have released the latest research and opinions.

　　() believes that gold stands at the starting point of the medium and long-term bull market, and the elasticity of gold stocks is about 2.23 times that of gold prices. National Gold Securities believes that it is expected that the Federal Reserve will release a "easing signal" in Q2, which will become the starting point for the rising wave of gold stocks. In addition, a number of private equity companies believe that multiple positive resonance, the metal attributes of resource products are activated, and the consumption of non-ferrous commodities is expected to drive the bulls of commodities and start a wave of "periodic table" markets.

　　Bridgewater (China) Investment’s three products are heavily invested in gold ETFs

　　Since the beginning of this year, gold seems to have escaped the "gravity", and the price of gold has continuously refreshed historical highs, making gold stocks ETFs popular with market funds. On April 3, after the opening of the gold stocks ETF (159562) under China Asset Management was delayed by an hour, there was another violent increase until the daily limit. The ETF has risen by the limit for three consecutive days, and the premium rate is as high as 30%, setting a record.

　　Gold stocks ETFs are highly speculated by the market and cannot be separated from the rapid rise in gold prices. Since April, gold prices have continued to refresh historical highs. From the perspective of international gold prices, as of the morning of April 6, Beijing time, the gold futures contract for June settlement on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2349.1/ounce, up 1.76% on the day. London spot gold closed at $2329.57/ounce, an increase of 1.77%. International gold prices continued to hit a record high, rising 13% during the year.

　　The soaring price of gold has also made the investment boss in the layout earn a lot of money. Foreign private equity Bridge Water (China) investment has a "soft spot" for gold. According to private placement network data, Bridge Water (China) investment’s three products are heavily invested in gold ETFs, totaling 181.90 million fund shares.

　　Specifically, Bridgewater’s all-weather enhanced China Private Offering Fund No. 2 holds shares of Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF. Bridgewater’s all-weather enhanced China Private Offering Fund No. 3 holds shares of three ETF products including Bosera Gold ETF, Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF. Bridgewater’s all-weather enhanced China Private Offering Fund No. 1 holds shares of Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF.

　　For the "skyrocketing" gold price, Soochow Securities Research Report believes that gold usually declines three months before interest rate cuts. Therefore, as the interest rate cut cycle approaches, a pullback in gold will be highly likely. If you refer to the experience of gold standing at $1,000/ounce in 2009, 20% may be a hurdle, which also means that there may be some pullback pressure near $2,400/ounce.

　　"Torrential" gold stocks ushered in the main wave?

　　Regarding the "skyrocketing" gold price, Tianfeng Securities Research Report believes that gold is standing at the starting point of the medium and long-term bull market. Looking at the big cycle, it is most likely that it is in the middle and early stages of the gold bull market. There are favorable factors such as interest rate cut expectations, high inflation, and a downward dollar index on the macro level. Looking at the small cycle, the US dollar and US bond yields are declining, and the real interest rate may enter a downward cycle, superimposing the risk-off demand generated by geopolitics. Gold is currently in the middle of the rising stage of the small cycle paradigm, gradually moving towards a new high. At the beginning of this round of gold’s rising cycle, the elasticity of gold stocks is about 2.23 times that of gold prices

　　The latest research report of Guojin Securities strongly recommends paying attention to the main rising wave of gold stocks. The research report believes that under the combined effect of factors such as the good performance of gold stocks in 1Q2024 and the "easing signal" released by the Federal Reserve, 2Q2024 will usher in the main rising wave of gold stocks. The current market value of gold stocks does not reflect the expectation of a rise in gold prices, and may make up for it in the future. Based on the dimension of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut in June, Guojin Securities expects that the Federal Reserve will release a "easing signal" in Q2, which will become the starting point for the main rising wave of gold stocks.

　　Xu Zhiyun, a partner of Ruisheng Investment, told reporters that the current round of gold prices has long been out of the previous real interest rate framework. Behind it is the purchase behavior of global central banks, which is essentially distrust of the US dollar system, which has led to the return of gold to monetary attributes. The swing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations has a short-term disturbance to market confidence, but as long as the market still believes that interest rate cuts are only a matter of time and rhythm, the central bank’s continued purchase behavior of gold will not change, and the long-term upward price of precious metals, including resource goods, is supported.

　　It is worth noting that tens of billions of private high-tech assets Deng Xiaofeng in this wave of gold bull market made a lot of money, Deng Xiaofeng management of Gao Yi Xiaofeng No. 2 letter fund heavily held Zijin Mining 401.7775 million shares, Gao Yi Xiaofeng Hongyuan fund also held Zijin Mining 297.05 million shares at the end of the period, Deng Xiaofeng’s two products together held Zijin Mining 699 million shares. As of April 3, Zijin Mining shares rose more than 40.53% this year.

　　"Periodic Table of Elements" market opens

　　Guangdong Xiaoyu Investment Li Shiyu told reporters that a major reason for the recent strengthening of resource stocks is that the market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates this year. Secondly, due to geopolitical friction and risk impact, gold prices have been on the rise this year, and international gold prices have continued to hit record highs, which has also stimulated the price performance of other related resource products. The performance of gold prices is currently desensitizing interest rate hikes, and many historical trends have proved that the continuous rise of gold prices to new highs is the leading signal of a bull market in commodities.

　　Li Shiyu said that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle will eventually end this year. Although there are "twists and turns", it will not affect the start of the interest rate cut cycle in 2024. The weak expectation of the US dollar will stimulate the "financial attributes" of non-ferrous metals. Coupled with the recovery of domestic and foreign demand, the PMI will rebound beyond expectations, which will greatly promote the consumption growth of non-ferrous commodities and is expected to start a new round of demand for some resource commodities.

　　Xu Zhiyun told reporters that the trend of the resource sector is strong, corresponding to the overall rise in the prices of important commodities such as gold, copper, and oil. The first is that the financial attributes of resource commodities are being fully activated. The market expects that the world will end the rapid interest rate hikes of the past two years and enter the interest rate cut cycle. In addition, the liquidity of the sky is still there, and resource commodities that are still at a low level compared with other major assets will be favored. As the commodity with the strongest financial attributes, gold prices continue to brush out record highs is a sign that financial attributes have been activated. Optimistic about the future rise of resource commodities, which is currently a rising dessert area, but we should also pay attention to the rhythm of surfing. Precious metal prices can be used as a leading indicator

　　Chen Hongbing, chairperson of Anhui Meitong Asset, told reporters that the recent strengthening of non-ferrous metals such as gold, copper and aluminum, the first is the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Historically, the Federal Reserve has officially entered the interest rate reduction cycle, and the price of gold has a very high probability of rising during this period; secondly, the shortage of supply and demand! For example, the production reduction/shutdown of overseas copper mines will reduce the output of global copper concentrates by about 400,000 tons in 2024, and the expectation of market supply balance will be completely reversed into a shortage. Under the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the manufacturing industry is expected to recover, and the global resonance replenishment pool has completely fermented the market’s logic for copper supply problems. The logic of aluminum is similar. On the demand side, the industry has entered the traditional peak season

　　Ma Cheng, chairperson of Shenzhen Juze Investment, said that the recent performance of resource stocks is strong, first of all, the market estimates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second quarter in the future, and commodity prices are expected to rise; second, the latest domestic PMI in March reached 50.8%, the data exceeded expectations, and the economy returned to the expansion range, which means that our country’s economy has recovered rapidly and is expected to drive resource commodity prices; third, the recent deterioration of the situation in the Middle East has stimulated the sharp rise in international crude oil prices and gold prices.